{"id":2372,"date":"2025-09-23T10:12:30","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T10:12:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/troposferica.com\/?p=2372"},"modified":"2025-09-23T10:27:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T10:27:53","slug":"es-cert-que-sempre-plou-per-la-merce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/troposferica.com\/ca\/es-cert-que-sempre-plou-per-la-merce\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9S CERT QUE SEMPRE PLOU PER LA MERC\u00c8?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

L\u2019arribada de la tardor, que enguany ha estat el dia 22 de setembre a les 20 hores i 19 minuts indica, tamb\u00e9, l\u2019arribada de les festes de La Merc\u00e8 a Barcelona<\/mark><\/strong> que, per q\u00fcestions de calendari, se solen celebrar, entre els dies 20 i 28 de setembre. Durant aquestes festes, hi ha la sensaci\u00f3 bastant generalitzada que sempre plou, per\u00f2 \u00e9s certa aquesta afirmaci\u00f3?<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A la ciutat de Barcelona i, a bona part de la costa central catalana, la tardor \u00e9s l\u2019estaci\u00f3 de l\u2019any m\u00e9s plujosa. De fet, en la darrera climatologia comarcal d\u2019el Barcelon\u00e8s (1971-2000) calculada per l\u2019Observatori Fabra i consultable a la web del Servei Meteorol\u00f2gic de Catalunya (SMC), el setembre \u00e9s el segon mes m\u00e9s pluj\u00f3s<\/mark><\/strong> de l\u2019any, canviant lleugerament de l\u2019anterior c\u00e0lcul clim\u00e0tic (1961-1990). Tot i aix\u00f2, l\u2019octubre es mant\u00e9 com el mes m\u00e9s pluj\u00f3s, malgrat que la dist\u00e0ncia entre els dos mesos \u00e9s for\u00e7a m\u00e9s curta que en la s\u00e8rie pr\u00e8via (Figura 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figura 1<\/strong>: Histograma clim\u00e0tic del per\u00edode 1961-1990 (esquerra) histograma clim\u00e0tic del per\u00edode 1971-2000 (dreta). Font:<\/strong> SMC.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Per respondre a la pregunta \u201c\u00e9s cert que sempre plou per la Merc\u00e8?<\/mark><\/strong>\u201d, hem analitzat la s\u00e8rie pluviom\u00e8trica de les diferents estacions meteorol\u00f2giques oficials del SMC a Barcelona, i m\u00e9s en profunditat la de l\u2019Observatori Fabra, ja que \u00e9s la que t\u00e9 la s\u00e8rie temporal m\u00e9s llarga, amb un per\u00edode de dades disponible des de 1996 fins avui en dia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gaireb\u00e9 en cada any hi ha hagut precipitacions en un dia o un altre entre el 20 i 28 de setembre a Barcelona. Des de 1996 nom\u00e9s hi ha hagut 4 anys en qu\u00e8 no s\u2019hagi registrat cap precipitaci\u00f3 en aquesta estaci\u00f3 (Figura 2<\/strong>). Dit amb unes altres paraules, ha plogut en 25 dels 29 anys<\/mark><\/strong> que disposa de dades, \u00e9s a dir que ha plogut un 86% dels anys des que es tenen dades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figura 2<\/strong>: Gr\u00e0fica de precipitaci\u00f3 acumulada entre els dies 20 i 28 de setembre a l\u2019Observatori Fabra. Font: Elaboraci\u00f3 pr\u00f2pia.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Malgrat que, durant les festes de La Merc\u00e8, hi ha hagut precipitacions en 25 dels darrers 29 anys, en la majoria dels casos no ha plogut concretament el dia 24, com es pot veure en la Figura 3. Novament, ja que \u00e9s la s\u00e8rie m\u00e9s llarga, l\u2019Obs. Fabra registra m\u00e9s dies de precipitaci\u00f3, amb un total de 7, valor que equival pr\u00e0cticament a un 25%. L\u2019estaci\u00f3 de la Zona Universit\u00e0ria en registra nom\u00e9s 4, tamb\u00e9 amb un percentatge que voreja el 25%. Per altra banda, al Raval se\u2019n registren 6 i, per tant, ha plogut un ter\u00e7 dels dies 24 de setembre des de 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figura 3<\/strong>: Gr\u00e0fica de precipitaci\u00f3 acumulada de les tres estacions del SMC a Barcelona pel dia 24 de setembre. Font: Elaboraci\u00f3 pr\u00f2pia.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A Barcelona mateix s\u2019observa una certa variabilitat en els dies de precipitaci\u00f3 que, probablement, \u00e9s causada per la naturalesa de les mateixes pluges, ja que aquestes no afecten tota la ciutat amb la mateixa intensitat i, de vegades, poden arribar a afectar nom\u00e9s a una de les estacions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amb totes les dades que s\u2019han analitzat es pot arribar a la conclusi\u00f3 que \u00e9s molt probable que plogui en algun moment o altre dels dies que duren les festes de la Merc\u00e8<\/mark><\/strong> a Barcelona. Les xifres no enganyen!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La pregunta que queda per fer \u00e9s: Plour\u00e0 enguany el dia de La Merc\u00e8?<\/mark><\/strong> La resposta \u00e9s que segurament s\u00ed!<\/mark><\/strong> Els models meteorol\u00f2gics presenten certes discrep\u00e0ncies, per\u00f2 la majoria coincideixen a predir que entre la nit del 23 i la matinada del 24 s\u2019esperen algunes precipitacions o ruixats a la ciutat de Barcelona. Veurem que acaba passant…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019arribada de la tardor, que enguany ha estat el dia 22 de setembre a les 20 hores i 19 minuts indica, tamb\u00e9, l\u2019arribada de les festes de La Merc\u00e8 a Barcelona que, per q\u00fcestions de calendari, se solen celebrar, entre els dies 20 i 28 de setembre. Durant aquestes festes, hi ha la sensaci\u00f3 bastant […]\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":2369,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[109,251,64,263,72],"class_list":["post-2372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-curiosidades-ca","tag-curiosidades","tag-curiosidades-2-ca","tag-meteorologia-ca","tag-plou-per-la-merce","tag-prediccio"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c9S CERT QUE SEMPRE PLOU PER LA MERC\u00c8? - Troposferica<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hi ha la sensaci\u00f3 bastant generalitzada que sempre plou per la Merc\u00e8 a Barcelona, per\u00f2 \u00e9s certa aquesta afirmaci\u00f3?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/troposferica.com\/ca\/es-cert-que-sempre-plou-per-la-merce\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c9S CERT QUE SEMPRE PLOU PER LA MERC\u00c8? 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